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Old September 14th 03, 03:11 AM posted to alt.talk.weather
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Default Tropical vs. Global

Question: Why is the NHC relying more on earlier global models than the
later 14 00Z tropical models for their Isabel 5 day forecasts.

Is it because most hurricanes in this part of the world eventually track
more right than the forecasts predict???

Curious on the Coast



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Old September 14th 03, 03:46 AM posted to alt.talk.weather
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Default Tropical vs. Global

I think I remember reading that the models showed a left-bias in predicting
Fabian's track, so the forecasters are taking that into account with Isabel.


"V-Man" wrote in message
...
Question: Why is the NHC relying more on earlier global models than the
later 14 00Z tropical models for their Isabel 5 day forecasts.

Is it because most hurricanes in this part of the world eventually track
more right than the forecasts predict???

Curious on the Coast




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Old September 15th 03, 09:25 PM posted to alt.talk.weather
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Default Tropical vs. Global

Meribor wrote:

I think I remember reading that the models showed a left-bias in predicting
Fabian's track, so the forecasters are taking that into account with Isabel.


People don't want to look like fools, so they hedge their forecast a bit.
When a trof "picks up" a storm, the turn northward is usually pretty sharp -
but if you forecast that location and time incorrectly, the forecast can look
bad even if you knew what you were doing. So they make the forecast turn
more gradual. At least it seems this way to me.

Isabel differs because after the trof which is causing the current northward
movement passes the region, no trof is forecast to be near it for several days.
Thus I don't think that'll be a problem for Isabel. Rather, I wonder if the
westward movement will predominate again after the trof is past - though a
northward component around the Bermuda High is likely also.


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