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Old April 30th 19, 09:29 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
N_Cook N_Cook is offline
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Default El Nino declared by NOAA.

On 30/04/2019 08:14, wrote:
Five overlapping 3-month periods, so the criterion has been achieved.

Looks like it may last longer than was being predicted too. Global temperatures, in this weak El Nino, will be very interesting.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf


And rising.
A few spot values from pixel counting for more recent values to feed
into the rolling quarter means.
2019year-day, SST anomaly
91, +0.93 deg C
112, +0.93
119, +0.91
(but the first few +2 degree bin pixels in the output yesterday,119)
off the twice weekly NOAA global SST nightime anomaly output chart,
for the "El Nino " sea-area defined here
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
Just because NOAA declares it is somewhat irrelevant, its been affecting
things since (NH) autumn of last year, but it could have been just a
short term blip for NOAA purposes.
See the exagerated (because only surface waters affected) on the Jason3
altimetry data for global sea level rise.
Interestingly is it/will it ? be affecting global sea-ice
https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html
(removing seasonality option ,as relatively greater than ENSO effects)
because of the recent years relative lack of and degraded strength of MYI.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/nsidc_global_extent_byyear_b.png
Charctic shows the sea-ice deficit is truly global, affecting Arctic and
Antarctic at the same time, but opposite seasons.
And not be a short-term amelioratable exageration like apparent
overplayed SLR? Fascinating we can observe this sort of stuff from the
comfort of our non-floating, non-melted armchairs.