On 11/10/2018 09:25, Graham Easterling wrote:
There may be no weather warning for Cornwall, or west Wales yet, but it now looks like we could get some of the strongest winds affecting the mainland.. Certainly a good deal stronger in Penzance than much of the current warning area.
The MetO & GFS both give gusts to 60mph for Penzance, GFS has been showing a real gale for some hours for the last couple of days
We've had wind weather warnings with forecast gusts half that speed on many occasions. I suppose the delay of any warning is down to a question ofe the exact position of the front, it's that which may result in very strong winds here, rather than the depression itself which is forecast to be a long way away.
The real issue is likely to be the swell direction (SSW) taking it into some normally sheltered south coast locations, combined with a big tide & storm & wave setup surges.
Having said all that the front probably will behave slightly differently, and it'll just be wet & windy. Still keep an eye on John's site
It needs to 70mph to be really exciting at that location. I've experience gales topping 90mph when I lived on the cliff top at Sennen.
Copy of my latest advisory to our local (Southampton) flood action group
(our siting means we only have to consider elevated mean sea level, not
MetO is giving Callum 938mB; going by Irish records , looks as though
you have to go back 80 years for such a low pressure at 50N near us.
Overnight 12/13 Oct tide may have a similar surge , but as a lot of
model variation still , not much point in widgetting.
Looks unlikely the inner arc of wind could come into play so far south
for a serious worst-case , so widgetting for Callum as-is and if the
outer arc of wind came in 3 hours early and using GFS 00Z wind projections.
As-is for 13:47 tide tomorrow , surge of
0.41m with Newlyn at their high tide 0.34m surge
if 3 hours early
0.64m surge here, with Newlyn 0.58m
The official surge predictions at