Thread: TS Ophelia
View Single Post
  #26   Report Post  
Old October 12th 17, 09:58 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Freddie Freddie is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,591
Default TS Ophelia

On Thursday, 12 October 2017 09:53:30 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 10:52:46 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
There is a massive variety of ensemble solutions for Sunday and Monday, and there just isn't enough confidence in the outcome to say anything more than the bland statement. The MetO had to issue a chart for this time, but to be honest it could be well wide off the mark. The models will have a much tighter range of solutions in a couple of days time when extra-tropical transition is underway. One thing we can be certain of - the storm won't be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the UK, if indeed it does hit our shores at all.

--
Freddie


Looks very much like Eire will take a hammering though, the forecast track is becoming more consistent.

The ensembles vary from having a sub-960 hPa low over southern Eire to a 1022 hPa high over the southwest approaches. Still plenty of variability, although a small minority of members are settling on a track similar to the published charts.


As far as England & Wales is concerned, it looks like only Cornwall stands a fair chance of being affected.

Possibly, but not a statement I would make due to the variability in solutions.


We'll see in due course!

Indeed! It'll be fascinating to watch how this pans out :-)

--
Freddie
Fishpool Farm
Hyssington
Powys
296m AMSL
http://www.fishpoolfarmweather.co.uk/
https://twitter.com/FishpoolFarmWx for hourly reports