On 12/10/2017 09:53, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 10:52:46 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
There is a massive variety of ensemble solutions for Sunday and Monday, and there just isn't enough confidence in the outcome to say anything more than the bland statement. The MetO had to issue a chart for this time, but to be honest it could be well wide off the mark. The models will have a much tighter range of solutions in a couple of days time when extra-tropical transition is underway. One thing we can be certain of - the storm won't be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the UK, if indeed it does hit our shores at all.
Looks very much like Eire will take a hammering though, the forecast track is becoming more consistent.
The swell forecast has been upped considerably to the SW of Ireland over the last 24 /36 hours. See http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell for Monday.
Forecast significant peak swell height of 50', The significant wave height is mean wave height (trough to crest) of the highest third of the waves (H1/3). The highest swells will be 30% or more higher than that, so really big by any standards. Personally, I'm a little surprised how big the forecast swell size is, considering the speed feature will be moving.
As far as England & Wales is concerned, it looks like only Cornwall stands a fair chance of being affected.
We'll see in due course!
Almost worth travelling to Cornwall to witness.
Locally, Southampton, for the current predicted winds passing through
the Channel Approaches and wind-stress induced component of surge ,
nothing exceptional on the residential marine flooding front, about 0.1m
less than the flooding of Valentines Day 2014.
Principally, though a 1.3m surge, on a mid-range tide, mid neap/springs;
but what I call a stealth tide, nothing of note meteorologically , but
the tide keeps rising due to winds far away.
How much hurricane induced inverse-barometer sea-water doming will be
sent into the English Channel, if any even, and added to that surge, is
a big unknown though.