Or are there more questions than answers or maybe just too many models to cross. However: Okay Stratospheric warming creates Tropospheric cooling-why? I also understand that the Polar Vortex being knocked of its perch leads to a far less active jet stream and westerly's at out latitudes with ridging and troughing far more likely but is that due to stratospheric warming as well.

1000z: 27003KT 17km -RADZ 1ST012 4CU015 6SC035 2.6/1.1 QFF 1033.9 rising. Cloud increased for a time during the evening, with a light shower around 2000z, before breaking again before 2200z. Mainly clear (or just high cloud) overnight with hoar frost, but cloud increased from the NNE after 0800z, melting the frost. Light rain (and some drizzle) started about 0945z. 09-09: Max: 10.9...

After the model ups and downs of the last 2 days, it appears that it might be back to the usual 2010-11 winter fare. Agreement and consistency are creeping back into the models and a zonal outlook towards mid-month looks the most likely outcome. See if the agreement continues into tomorrow.

Weather observation - Sunderland, Tyne & Wear OS X (Eastings) 440951 OS Y (Northings) 554026 Lat (WGS84) N54:52:46 (54.879323) Long (WGS84) W1:21:48 (-1.363282) ============================== A fine sunny and crisp day, which was fine and dandy as one of my jobs today took me up past Morpeth into the lovely Nortumberland countryside. Not as mild as it has been, but who...

Southcote - 1500Z N F1-2 9999 TrSC020 5CI300 +6.7/+1.2 1033 1CI220 also COTRA Sunny since 0900, with small amounts of Sc and variable amounts of Ci Max today +8.6

Cloud 8 Humidity 82 Rain 1.1 Pressure 1035 T Min 3 T Max 6 Visibility Good Wind NW 3 --

Evershot: 196m amsl 12/01/12 09-09z Ppn: 24hrs 0.7mm Month 34.4mm 30-day 73.7mm Temp: Max 11.2°C

On Jan 12, 10:56*pm, "Graham" wrote: 3 of the 6 warmest Januarys (since 1960) have occurred since 2005! The warmest on record is 2007 with 5.6c, by contrast January 2012 is a massive 6.6c after 12 days!! I know Will is talking about some colder weather later next week, but it we would need a good cold spell just to get it back down to average:) As it...

The stratwarm is continuing apace and descending lower down slowing down the Rossby waves even more. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html This weekend's frosty high is down to an amplification in the upper air but still with a wavelength short enough to progress east shifting the high east early next week linking in with the developing Russian high for a while....

130900Z 00000KT 9000 HZ 1Ci220 0.4/-0.6 QFF 1033.6 (+1.2 in 3 hr)= Humidity: 93% (0% last hour) COTRA above Ci Max 09-09: 13.4 Min 09-09: 0.1 Average temperature for January: 8.4 Grass Min 18-09: -5.5 30cm Soil Temp: 7.3 Rain 09-09: 0.0 mm January Rain (00-24): 20.6 mm

Southcote - 0900Z W F1 9999 4CI250 - 300 +1.8/+0.6 1033 COTRA Sunny after a fine night Variable amounts of Ci Max (09 - 09) +12.8 Min (18 - 09) 0.0

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued 0504, 13/01/12 A battle between cold air to the east and milder Atlantic air will occur next week. Tuesday and Wednesday will see mild Atlantic air over the UK, but thereafter things are much less certain. ECM shows an upper low separating from the main polar vortex and as the low heads ESE'wards its associated surface low...

"Take Action", i.e. stay indoors and keep knitting. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/UEEE.html This fog and cold have been going a day or two and could easily last a week. Then there will be no weather at all, not even snow, which all fell in the late autumn. Almost every building in this large and rather pleasant city is built on stilts to preserve the permafrost. Those much older...

Average temperature recorded at the Brussels Uccle site over the first 11 days of January 2012 is 7.7°C. This is 5.1 deg C above the long-term average. Average maximum 10.0°C (+ 4.9) Average minimum 5.4°C (+ 5.7) Warmest January in the Uccle record dating back to 1833 was 2007. This January's overall average and average max/min temps so far are all above the figures for January 2007 -...

Brussels on Thursday 12th January 2012 Rather cloudy but quite bright in the morning. Overcast after midday. Brief period of light rain at the end of the afternoon but dry with clearing sky soon after dusk. Moderate SW wind veered gradually during the day and was NW in the evening. Mild again but steady fall in temperature after dark. Brussels Uccle 10.5°C - overnight minimum...

Thursday 12th January 2012 Meteosat MSG satellite picture from Ferdinand Valk's site at 12.00 UTC http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day_image/MSG-1200-EUR.jpg Meteosat MSG-2 satellite picture from Bernard Burton's site at 12.00 UTC http://www.woksat.info/etcua12m/ua12-msg-1200-uk.html NOAA 19 satellite picture from DLR at 12.59 UTC

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm Gives an idea of my thoughts. Please do not use for areas below 150m asl in the SW where it will be much more benign :-) Will --

0900z: 28012G23KT 35km -DZ 7STSC012 9.8/8.4 QFF 1023.4 steady. Cloudy and breezy night, with occasional very light rain and drizzle. W-E oriented band of cloud just to my north looks like it may be the cold front. 09-09: Max: 11.1 (1257z) Min: 8.8 (0104z) Rain: Trace -- Freddie

No mutant sharks attributal to AGW found of the coast of Australia. http://news.yahoo.com/world-first-hybrid-shark-found-off-australia-070347608.html Oh no: If that's true it won't be long before some druggy thieving thug will have one on the end of or not as may be the case ; of a leash posing around your local sink estate. If the marine mutations get out of hand I can see lawless...

Tideswell, Derbyshire - Wednesday 11th January 2012 ----------------------------------------------------- 0900z WSW F2 2000 -DZ BR 8St003 08.3/08.3 1030 RMK: Slight rain/drizzle since about 0300z. In the past 48 days there have been 45 "rain days". In that 48-day period there's been a total of 307.5 mm. There's certainly no drought here! 09-09z: Tx 8.8 (1530z) Tn 6.1 (0935z) RR...