Quite a difference between the output at 10 days from the ECM 12z -
which models a continuation of the wet and unsettled weather for the
UK and the gfs, which has shown 3 successive runs in which a possible
anticyclonic influence again has grown with each run. Last night, the
JMA was supporting this at T192 and GEM shows high pressure at T240 on
the 00z.

No more than interesting, but the possibilities are there. See if the
ECM changes on the 00z run. If that switches to high pressure at T240,
I'll be a lot more interested! Batten down the hatches until then
though, as Will has said. Rain is already crossing the SW peninsula
and there's a lot more to come nationwide before the weekend.

On Sep 6, 8:00*am, Dawlish wrote:
Quite a difference between the output at 10 days from the ECM 12z -
which models a continuation of the wet and unsettled weather for the
UK and the gfs, which has shown 3 successive runs in which a possible
anticyclonic influence again has grown with each run. Last night, the
JMA was supporting this at T192 and GEM shows high pressure at T240 on
the 00z.

No more than interesting, but the possibilities are there. See if the
ECM changes on the 00z run. If that switches to high pressure at T240,
I'll be a lot more interested! Batten down the hatches until then
though, as Will has said. Rain is already crossing the SW peninsula
and there's a lot more to come nationwide before the weekend.

Hints and allegations of higher pressure at T240 on the 00z ECM.
Powder being kept dry!

On Sep 6, 10:23*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Sep 6, 8:00*am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a difference between the output at 10 days from the ECM 12z -
which models a continuation of the wet and unsettled weather for the
UK and the gfs, which has shown 3 successive runs in which a possible
anticyclonic influence again has grown with each run. Last night, the
JMA was supporting this at T192 and GEM shows high pressure at T240 on
the 00z.

No more than interesting, but the possibilities are there. See if the
ECM changes on the 00z run. If that switches to high pressure at T240,
I'll be a lot more interested! Batten down the hatches until then
though, as Will has said. Rain is already crossing the SW peninsula
and there's a lot more to come nationwide before the weekend.

Hints and allegations of higher pressure at T240 on the 00z ECM.
Powder being kept dry!

The gfs is now modelling an anticyclone over the UK at T240 and it has
been developing that for 5 runs, however the ECM does not agree and
continues to show anything else but! However, the ECM has shown no
consistency in output at all, at 10 days, over the past 24 hours,
shifting from unsettled weather with low pressure dominating, in
yesterday's output to the northerly shown on the 12z.

I have more confidence in the gfs outcome because of it's consistency,
but there's no agreement with the ECM to confirm this confidence.

On Sep 7, 7:30*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Sep 6, 10:23*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Sep 6, 8:00*am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a difference between the output at 10 days from the ECM 12z -
which models a continuation of the wet and unsettled weather for the
UK and the gfs, which has shown 3 successive runs in which a possible
anticyclonic influence again has grown with each run. Last night, the
JMA was supporting this at T192 and GEM shows high pressure at T240 on
the 00z.

No more than interesting, but the possibilities are there. See if the
ECM changes on the 00z run. If that switches to high pressure at T240,
I'll be a lot more interested! Batten down the hatches until then
though, as Will has said. Rain is already crossing the SW peninsula
and there's a lot more to come nationwide before the weekend.

Hints and allegations of higher pressure at T240 on the 00z ECM.
Powder being kept dry!

The gfs is now modelling an anticyclone over the UK at T240 and it has
been developing that for 5 runs, however the ECM does not agree and
continues *to show anything else but! However, the ECM has shown no
consistency in output at all, at 10 days, over the past 24 hours,
shifting from unsettled weather with low pressure dominating, in
yesterday's output to the northerly shown on the 12z.

I have more confidence in the gfs outcome because of it's consistency,
but there's no agreement with the ECM to confirm this confidence.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All over the place. Easterlies on the ECM, Northerlies on the gfs. No
agreement; no consistency; chances of a forecast being correct at
T240.....low.

any chances of you ****ing off from u.s.w?

On 07/09/2010 7:53 PM, Dawlish wrote:
; chances of a forecast being correct at
T240.....low.

thats right , no forecast from you.

wait and until it gets easy eh? then claim your ****ing god and invent
some statistics.


On 06/09/2010 8:00 AM, Dawlish wrote:
Quite a difference between the output at 10 days from the ECM 12z -
which models a continuation of the wet and unsettled weather for the
UK and the gfs, which has shown 3 successive runs in which a possible
anticyclonic influence again has grown with each run. Last night, the
JMA was supporting this at T192 and GEM shows high pressure at T240 on
the 00z.

No more than interesting, but the possibilities are there. See if the
ECM changes on the 00z run. If that switches to high pressure at T240,
I'll be a lot more interested! Batten down the hatches until then
though, as Will has said. Rain is already crossing the SW peninsula
and there's a lot more to come nationwide before the weekend.

"mumford" wrote in message
...
any chances of you ****ing off from u.s.w?

---------------------
Actually, we'd prefer it if you did.
Dave

On Sep 7, 7:53*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Sep 7, 7:30*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Sep 6, 10:23*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Sep 6, 8:00*am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a difference between the output at 10 days from the ECM 12z -
which models a continuation of the wet and unsettled weather for the
UK and the gfs, which has shown 3 successive runs in which a possible
anticyclonic influence again has grown with each run. Last night, the
JMA was supporting this at T192 and GEM shows high pressure at T240 on
the 00z.

No more than interesting, but the possibilities are there. See if the
ECM changes on the 00z run. If that switches to high pressure at T240,
I'll be a lot more interested! Batten down the hatches until then
though, as Will has said. Rain is already crossing the SW peninsula
and there's a lot more to come nationwide before the weekend.

Hints and allegations of higher pressure at T240 on the 00z ECM.
Powder being kept dry!

The gfs is now modelling an anticyclone over the UK at T240 and it has
been developing that for 5 runs, however the ECM does not agree and
continues *to show anything else but! However, the ECM has shown no
consistency in output at all, at 10 days, over the past 24 hours,
shifting from unsettled weather with low pressure dominating, in
yesterday's output to the northerly shown on the 12z.

I have more confidence in the gfs outcome because of it's consistency,
but there's no agreement with the ECM to confirm this confidence.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All over the place. Easterlies on the ECM, Northerlies on the gfs. No
agreement; no consistency; chances of a forecast being correct at
T240.....low.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well, well. An Azores ridge that has slipped under the 10-day radar
and looks like it will begin to extend drier and more settled weather
to the UK from next Sunday. See how long its influence lasts. Still
not enough agreement at T240 as to the outcome, as you can see on the
models.

This has been modelled almost entirely by the gfs and other models.
The ECM hasn't picked this up until very recently and will have proved
to have been pretty hopeless on this one, if high pressure does build
later this weekend. It just shows how things can change at only a
week's distance. Yesterday morning, nothing like this was showing for
next Sunday and yet 24 hours on we have cross-model agreement on much
of the UK being under the influence of high pressure.

On Sep 8, 6:58*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Sep 7, 7:53*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Sep 7, 7:30*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Sep 6, 10:23*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Sep 6, 8:00*am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a difference between the output at 10 days from the ECM 12z -
which models a continuation of the wet and unsettled weather for the
UK and the gfs, which has shown 3 successive runs in which a possible
anticyclonic influence again has grown with each run. Last night, the
JMA was supporting this at T192 and GEM shows high pressure at T240 on
the 00z.

No more than interesting, but the possibilities are there. See if the
ECM changes on the 00z run. If that switches to high pressure at T240,
I'll be a lot more interested! Batten down the hatches until then
though, as Will has said. Rain is already crossing the SW peninsula
and there's a lot more to come nationwide before the weekend.

Hints and allegations of higher pressure at T240 on the 00z ECM.
Powder being kept dry!

The gfs is now modelling an anticyclone over the UK at T240 and it has
been developing that for 5 runs, however the ECM does not agree and
continues *to show anything else but! However, the ECM has shown no
consistency in output at all, at 10 days, over the past 24 hours,
shifting from unsettled weather with low pressure dominating, in
yesterday's output to the northerly shown on the 12z.

I have more confidence in the gfs outcome because of it's consistency,
but there's no agreement with the ECM to confirm this confidence.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All over the place. Easterlies on the ECM, Northerlies on the gfs. No
agreement; no consistency; chances of a forecast being correct at
T240.....low.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well, well. An Azores *ridge that has slipped under the 10-day radar
and looks like it will begin to extend drier and more settled weather
to the UK from next Sunday. See how long its influence lasts. Still
not enough agreement at T240 as to the outcome, as you can see on the
models.

This has been modelled almost entirely by the gfs and other models.
The ECM hasn't picked this up until very recently and will have proved
to have been pretty hopeless on this one, if high pressure does build
later this weekend. It just shows how things can change at only a
week's distance. Yesterday morning, nothing like this was showing for
next Sunday and yet 24 hours on we have cross-model agreement on much
of the UK being under the influence of high pressure.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

2 days on and still enormous differences across all models at 10 days.
00z gfs shows northerlies and quite a cold plunge for the UK, 12z ECM
shows an Atlantic low drawing up southerlies and GEM shows a fat
anticyclone sitting over the country. As wide a spread of option as it
is possible to display.

Pick the forecasting bones out of that.

On Sep 10, 10:47*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Sep 8, 6:58*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Sep 7, 7:53*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Sep 7, 7:30*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Sep 6, 10:23*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Sep 6, 8:00*am, Dawlish wrote:

Quite a difference between the output at 10 days from the ECM 12z -
which models a continuation of the wet and unsettled weather for the
UK and the gfs, which has shown 3 successive runs in which a possible
anticyclonic influence again has grown with each run. Last night, the
JMA was supporting this at T192 and GEM shows high pressure at T240 on
the 00z.

No more than interesting, but the possibilities are there. See if the
ECM changes on the 00z run. If that switches to high pressure at T240,
I'll be a lot more interested! Batten down the hatches until then
though, as Will has said. Rain is already crossing the SW peninsula
and there's a lot more to come nationwide before the weekend.

Hints and allegations of higher pressure at T240 on the 00z ECM.
Powder being kept dry!

The gfs is now modelling an anticyclone over the UK at T240 and it has
been developing that for 5 runs, however the ECM does not agree and
continues *to show anything else but! However, the ECM has shown no
consistency in output at all, at 10 days, over the past 24 hours,
shifting from unsettled weather with low pressure dominating, in
yesterday's output to the northerly shown on the 12z.

I have more confidence in the gfs outcome because of it's consistency,
but there's no agreement with the ECM to confirm this confidence.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All over the place. Easterlies on the ECM, Northerlies on the gfs. No
agreement; no consistency; chances of a forecast being correct at
T240.....low.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well, well. An Azores *ridge that has slipped under the 10-day radar
and looks like it will begin to extend drier and more settled weather
to the UK from next Sunday. See how long its influence lasts. Still
not enough agreement at T240 as to the outcome, as you can see on the
models.

This has been modelled almost entirely by the gfs and other models.
The ECM hasn't picked this up until very recently and will have proved
to have been pretty hopeless on this one, if high pressure does build
later this weekend. It just shows how things can change at only a
week's distance. Yesterday morning, nothing like this was showing for
next Sunday and yet 24 hours on we have cross-model agreement on much
of the UK being under the influence of high pressure.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

2 days on and still enormous differences across all models at 10 days.
00z gfs shows northerlies and quite a cold plunge for the UK, 12z ECM
shows an Atlantic low drawing up southerlies and GEM shows a fat
anticyclone sitting over the country. As wide a spread of option as it
is possible to display.

Pick the forecasting bones out of that.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Still the same old old flip-flops (and I though it was autumn welly
time now....!). Some lovely dartboard images of what I assume are the
remnants of hurricane Igor at T168/192 on both models. The weekend
looks fairly good, especially on the ECM and the week looks to be
drier that perhaps the weekend forecasts proposed, after this low gets
out of the way, but apart from saying "probably changeable" there's
little can be gleaned from a forecasting point of view from the NWP
output at T+240. Frosts in some more nothern areas Wednesday onwards?
The first snow snow on the tops of the Munroes this week?