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| uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
September 2nd 10, 07:21 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Wembury rainfall august and summer 2010
August total 108.6 mm. 143% of average.
Average 75.6 mm. Standard deviation (expected variability) 40.3 mm. so August was within one standard deviation from average and therefore not unusually wet. Summer (June, July , Aug) total 275.7 mm. 140% of average. Average 195.8 mm. Standard deviation (expected variability) 66.9 mm. so summer was just above one standard deviation from average and therefore was unusually wet. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon, 83 m amsl 
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#2
September 2nd 10, 07:50 PM
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Wembury rainfall august and summer 2010
"Len Wood" wrote in message ... August total 108.6 mm. 143% of average. Average 75.6 mm. Standard deviation (expected variability) 40.3 mm. so August was within one standard deviation from average and therefore not unusually wet. Summer (June, July , Aug) total 275.7 mm. 140% of average. Average 195.8 mm. Standard deviation (expected variability) 66.9 mm. so summer was just above one standard deviation from average and therefore was unusually wet. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon, 83 m amsl -------------------- Hi Len, I stand to be corrected as I've not used my stats for a few years but I thought, given normal distribution, 32% of summers would fall outside 1 x sd (5% at 1.96 x sd) from average, therefore this isn't that unusual ? Although you could argue that if it only happens on average every three summers it is unusual. Then again what is the definition of unusual? As my kids always tell me I've got too much time on my hands! Dave
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#3
September 2nd 10, 08:17 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Wembury rainfall august and summer 2010
On Sep 2, 8:50*pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote: "Len Wood" wrote in message ... August total 108.6 mm. 143% of average. Average 75.6 mm. Standard deviation (expected variability) 40.3 mm. so August was within one standard deviation from average and therefore not unusually wet. Summer (June, July , Aug) total 275.7 mm. 140% of average. Average 195.8 mm. Standard deviation (expected variability) 66.9 mm. so summer was just above one standard deviation from average and therefore was unusually wet. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon, 83 m amsl -------------------- Hi Len, I stand to be corrected as I've not used my stats for a few years but I thought, given normal distribution, 32% of summers would fall outside 1 x sd (5% at 1.96 x sd) *from average, therefore this isn't that unusual ? Although you could argue that if it only happens on average every three summers it is unusual. Then again what is the definition of unusual? As my kids always tell me I've got too much time on my hands! Dave - Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Quite right Dave. It all depends on what you call unusual. If you take +/- standard deviation from the average as the normal variability, anything greater than one st dev. could be considered unusual. The past summer was only just unusually wet under this definition. Some people define 2 standard deviations from the average as extreme. Len
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#4
September 3rd 10, 09:51 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Wembury rainfall august and summer 2010
"Len Wood" wrote in message ... On Sep 2, 8:50 pm, "Dave Cornwell" wrote: "Len Wood" wrote in message ... August total 108.6 mm. 143% of average. Average 75.6 mm. Standard deviation (expected variability) 40.3 mm. so August was within one standard deviation from average and therefore not unusually wet. Summer (June, July , Aug) total 275.7 mm. 140% of average. Average 195.8 mm. Standard deviation (expected variability) 66.9 mm. so summer was just above one standard deviation from average and therefore was unusually wet. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon, 83 m amsl -------------------- Hi Len, I stand to be corrected as I've not used my stats for a few years but I thought, given normal distribution, 32% of summers would fall outside 1 x sd (5% at 1.96 x sd) from average, therefore this isn't that unusual ? Although you could argue that if it only happens on average every three summers it is unusual. Then again what is the definition of unusual? As my kids always tell me I've got too much time on my hands! Dave - Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Quite right Dave. It all depends on what you call unusual. If you take +/- standard deviation from the average as the normal variability, anything greater than one st dev. could be considered unusual. The past summer was only just unusually wet under this definition. Some people define 2 standard deviations from the average as extreme. Len --------- ......... and it is nice that you have included the data on which you have based that definition so people can also evaluate it as they feel fit. Would be nice if all statements on here could be so readily validated ;-) Regards, Dave.
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