Well! I can't ignore that, as my forecast criteria have been triggered
by cross-model agreement and consistency from both the gfs and the ECM
today:

** At T240, on 3rd Sept, the UK will be bathed in a warm airstream,
with a continental feed. Higher pressure will be over, or to the east
of the UK and lower pressure will be kept out in the Atlantic, or
towards Iceland, by the bocking high. This situation will have been
preceded by a period of dry and settled weather, starting towards the
end of the last week in August and including the Bank Holiday. **

Short and simple. I don't see an early autumn at all. The unsettled
weather will continue this week, but by early September, there will be
(questionable, for sure!) talk of an "Indian summer" (whatever that
actually is!) . Autumn will have been postponed.

T. On the 4th, Manchester will be experiencing warm and settled
weather.

you cant postpone a season.

u try forecasting it.

oh wait u cant. can u?
your not qualified
not a forecaster
no history
no reputation
no ****ing brains.

back to school next week for you ****head?
usw will be quiet.

On 24/08/2010 10:18 PM, Dawlish wrote:
Autumn will have been postponed.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Well! I can't ignore that, as my forecast criteria have been triggered
by cross-model agreement and consistency from both the gfs and the ECM
today:

** At T240, on 3rd Sept, the UK will be bathed in a warm airstream,
with a continental feed. Higher pressure will be over, or to the east
of the UK and lower pressure will be kept out in the Atlantic, or
towards Iceland, by the bocking high. This situation will have been
preceded by a period of dry and settled weather, starting towards the
end of the last week in August and including the Bank Holiday. **

Short and simple. I don't see an early autumn at all. The unsettled
weather will continue this week, but by early September, there will be
(questionable, for sure!) talk of an "Indian summer" (whatever that
actually is!) . Autumn will have been postponed.

T. On the 4th, Manchester will be experiencing warm and settled
weather.

Keep following the models Paul, when they change you change. Do you actually
have a mind of your own?

Things you will never see.

"The models are talking rubbish, I think that this is going to happen"

Paul Garvey
Geography teacher
Big 'ead
market survey, mori pole, own mind, never follow the safe bet, all round
original thinker and genius

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...



Keep following the models Paul, when they change you change. Do you
actually have a mind of your own?


Surely looking at what the models are saying is an important part
of weather forecasting?

All Dawlish is doing is looking for consistency at T+240, for those
relatively rare occasions when a 10 day forecast has a reasonable
chance of being accurate. You can accuse him of 'cherry-picking'
the easiest situations of course, but he has always been very
upfront about what he is doing, and it simply indicates the fact that
forecasting at that range is usually not possible with any degree of
accuracy.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

The problem is if Dawlish only forecasts when all the models agree at
T240 (which is very rarely), what happens all the other times?

I’m off to Manchester on 4th September to watch Muse play in an open
air arena at Lanchashire Country Cricket Ground, I need to know
whether I need to purchase a full on Sou’wester, a pac-a-mac, shorts &
Tshirt or sun cream?

It’s no good saying, I can’t provide you with a forecast today because
the models don’t agree.

I can also look at the models and make a judgement of my own, even if
the models don’t agree I would have a go at forecasting and, I’m
dismissing the current model output and going for cool (15-17c) with a
NW breeze & showers.

On Aug 25, 8:16*am, Teignmouth wrote:
The problem is if Dawlish only forecasts when all the models agree at
T240 (which is very rarely), what happens all the other times?

I’m off to Manchester on 4th September to watch Muse play in an open
air arena at Lanchashire Country Cricket Ground, I need to know
whether I need to purchase a full on Sou’wester, a pac-a-mac, shorts &
Tshirt or sun cream?

It’s no good saying, I can’t provide you with a forecast today because
the models don’t agree.

I can also look at the models and make a judgement of my own, even if
the models don’t agree I would have a go at forecasting and, I’m
dismissing the current model output and going for cool (15-17c) with a
NW breeze & showers.

What do you use as your forecast criteria?

On 25 Aug, 09:18, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 25, 8:16*am, Teignmouth wrote:

The problem is if Dawlish only forecasts when all the models agree at
T240 (which is very rarely), what happens all the other times?

I’m off to Manchester on 4th September to watch Muse play in an open
air arena at Lanchashire Country Cricket Ground, I need to know
whether I need to purchase a full on Sou’wester, a pac-a-mac, shorts &
Tshirt or sun cream?

It’s no good saying, I can’t provide you with a forecast today because
the models don’t agree.

I can also look at the models and make a judgement of my own, even if
the models don’t agree I would have a go at forecasting and, I’m
dismissing the current model output and going for cool (15-17c) with a
NW breeze & showers.

What do you use as your forecast criteria?

Everything around me - the sun, the feel of the day the signs in the
sky and gut feeling. Usually right for a day or two, which is about
all the "scientific" forecasters can manage, and even then they're
just as likely to be wrong, and it doesn't cost me anything. Same
with alleged man-made climate change - just looking around, and
thinking back says (glaringly) that it aint so. All bollox, all a
flash in the pan like all the other self-generated scares in recent
history. Gives some people a living, I suppose.

CK

On Wednesday 25 August 2010 08:16, Teignmouth scribbled:

The problem is if Dawlish only forecasts when all the models agree at
T240 (which is very rarely), what happens all the other times?

I?m off to Manchester on 4th September to watch Muse play in an open
air arena at Lanchashire Country Cricket Ground, I need to know
whether I need to purchase a full on Sou?wester, a pac-a-mac, shorts &
Tshirt or sun cream?

All of the above. ;-)


It?s no good saying, I can?t provide you with a forecast today because
the models don?t agree.

If you were a paying customer, then you'd have a point.

On my forecasting course, we were told to show certainty when briefing a
customer when we secretly didn't have a clue what was going on. I soon broke
this rule at an RAF briefing when the situation could have gone one of two
ways. They agreed that they'd rather know when I had doubts instead of me
mentally tossing a coin and coming down firmly for only one possible
outcome.

With medium and long-term forecasting, it has always been the case that you
can sometimes be confident with a forecast whilst on other occasions, if you
were honest, you'd have to admit "I don't know." When I joined te Met
Office, that also applied to short-term forecasts.



--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: "newsman", not "newsboy".
"It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brains fall out." - Carl
Sagan
Pakistan Floods Appeal: http://www.dec.org.uk/

On Aug 25, 9:37*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wednesday 25 August 2010 08:16, Teignmouth scribbled:

The problem is if Dawlish only forecasts when all the models agree at
T240 (which is very rarely), what happens all the other times?

I?m off to Manchester on 4th September to watch Muse play in an open
air arena at Lanchashire Country Cricket Ground, I need to know
whether I need to purchase a full on Sou?wester, a pac-a-mac, shorts &
Tshirt or sun cream?

All of the above. ;-)



It?s no good saying, I can?t provide you with a forecast today because
the models don?t agree.

If you were a paying customer, then you'd have a point.

On my forecasting course, we were told to show certainty when briefing a
customer when we secretly didn't have a clue what was going on. I soon broke
this rule at an RAF briefing when the situation could have gone one of two
ways. They agreed that they'd rather know when I had doubts instead of me
mentally tossing a coin and coming down firmly for only one possible
outcome.

With medium and long-term forecasting, it has always been the case that you
can sometimes be confident with a forecast whilst on other occasions, if you
were honest, you'd have to admit "I don't know." When I joined te Met
Office, that also applied to short-term forecasts.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. *E-mail: "newsman", not "newsboy".
"It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brains fall out." - Carl
Sagan
Pakistan Floods Appeal:http://www.dec.org.uk/

Absolutely true.

I wish the MetO had that honesty; the relationship with it's customers
would improve. A month ago, the outlook for the end of August was dry,
warm and settled for England, especially for the SE. They couldn't
foresee this short breakdown to zonal in the south and they'd have
been much better off being honest about their lack of any kind of
certainty. What's hoped for, at the MetO is that people will have
forgotten the original forecast and no records are kept. There are
certainly no records of forecast accuracy, at a month's distance, in
the public domian, which is odd, as the MetO said that a shorter, 1
month forecast, was exactly what the public were wanting, when they
abandoned the seasonal forecasts following last summer's debacle.

The MetO treats it's audience with an expert's contempt for the view
of a backward pupil. Unfortunately the pupil, in this case, knows it
is being treated that way, as it is not quite as backward as the MetO
would like to think it is. This attitude really gets in the way of
customer relations, which is a shame, because the great British public
then feel that the single foremost forecasting agency, for the North
Atlantic, bar none. is somehow not very good. That's just rubbish, as
the UKMO is very, very good.

It's just limited in it's accuracy by present numerical modelling. No-
one could, or does, do better and it does the very best that is
possible with the present information. So tell the public that! Every
now and then, like Graham did, tell the customer there are real doubts
in the forecast that has been issued, instead of constantly covering
those doubts up with an immense and continuing show of hubris.

On Wed, 25 Aug 2010 at 00:16:21, Teignmouth wrote
in uk.sci.weather :

The problem is if Dawlish only forecasts when all the models agree at
T240 (which is very rarely), what happens all the other times?

I’m off to Manchester on 4th September to watch Muse play in an open
air arena at Lanchashire Country Cricket Ground, I need to know
whether I need to purchase a full on Sou’wester, a pac-a-mac, shorts &
Tshirt or sun cream?

What, no ear plugs?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)