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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

Today's mdoel interpretation (10/03/10)



 
 
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Old March 10th 10, 06:25 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Darren Prescott[_4_]
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Posts: 644
Default Today's mdoel interpretation (10/03/10)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Sunday.
Issued 0508, 10th March 2010

The jetstream will be moving north over the weekend and a more zonal spell
of weather is likely for parts of the UK. Early next week will see high
pressure to the south and a risk of rain in the north and northwest, with
temperatures close to or possibly slightly above average.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
High pressure and light winds cover the UK. Tomorrow there's little change,
although as the high moves westwards a WSW'ly breeze affects northern
Scotland and NE'lies move over SE England. NW'lies cover the UK on Friday as
the high drifts further westwards, followed by further NW'lies on Saturday.

T+120 synopsis
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a marked meridional pattern over the Atlantic,
with the jet heading SE'wards over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a
NW'ly flow, with a ridge to the SW. An upper NW'ly flow covers the UK with
ECM too, as is the case with MetO. GEM shows upper NW'lies as well, as does
JMA.
At the surface, GFS brings westerlies with a ridge to the west. ECM has
WNW'lies and westerlies due to a high to the SW, as is the case with MetO.
GEM brings WNW'lies and a high to the SW and JMA is very similar.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows WSW'lies on day 6 with a high to the south. On day 7 a ridge
covers England and Wales, with WSW'lies for most.
GFS brings more zonal WSW'lies and SW'lies on days 6 and 7 as the jet moves
northwards.

Looking further afield
ECM shows a mixture of SW'lies and SSW'lies on days 8 to 10, as a weak ridge
moves eastwards.
GFS has SW'lies backing southerly on days 8 to 10 as low pressure approaches
from the SW.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The GEFS has changed to show temperatures below average for the next 5 or 6
days, followed by a rise to above-average values.

ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
The ECM ensembles show a gradual warming trend for the weekend and beyond.



 




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