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| uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Saturday.
Issued 0507, 9th March 2010 A more zonal flow will cover the UK on Sunday and into the beginning of the working week, with rain likely in the far north and drier, sunnier weather further south. Beyond that the models diverge, with GFS showing trough disruption followed by high pressure and ECM showing zonality continuing. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS High pressure covers the UK with light winds for most. There's little change tomorrow, but on Thursday the high moves westwards and this allows northerlies to affect England and Wales. Elsewhere winds are westerlies. On Friday a NW'ly flow covers the UK in association with a high to the west. T+120 synopsis http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows the UK under a ridge, on the warm side of the jet. The 500hPa chart shows NW'lies with a ridge to the west. ECM has upper NW'lies too, as does MetO. GEM similarly shows NW'lies, as does JMA. At the surface, GFS brings NW'lies for all with the Azores High to the immediate SW. ECM has WNW'lies, as is the case with MetO. GEM and JMA are similar as well. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows winds backing westerly on day 6 and SW'ly on day 7 as a ridge declines over the UK. GFS brings westerlies on days 6 and 7 with a high to the south. Looking further afield ECM shows SW'lies on days 8 to 10 as low pressure moves slowly eastwards to the north of the UK. GFS has SE'lies on day 8 as a trough disrupts to the west. On day 9 there are westerlies, followed by light winds as pressure builds over the UK on day 10. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The GEFS shows temperatures a little below average. ECM ensembles http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif The ECM ensembles now show a cold 3 days followed by a gradual warming. |
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