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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

Today's model interpretation (9/03/10)



 
 
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Old March 9th 10, 05:14 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Darren Prescott[_4_]
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Posts: 644
Default Today's model interpretation (9/03/10)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Saturday.
Issued 0507, 9th March 2010

A more zonal flow will cover the UK on Sunday and into the beginning of the
working week, with rain likely in the far north and drier, sunnier weather
further south. Beyond that the models diverge, with GFS showing trough
disruption followed by high pressure and ECM showing zonality continuing.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
High pressure covers the UK with light winds for most. There's little change
tomorrow, but on Thursday the high moves westwards and this allows
northerlies to affect England and Wales. Elsewhere winds are westerlies. On
Friday a NW'ly flow covers the UK in association with a high to the west.

T+120 synopsis
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows the UK under a ridge, on the warm side of the jet.
The 500hPa chart shows NW'lies with a ridge to the west. ECM has upper
NW'lies too, as does MetO. GEM similarly shows NW'lies, as does JMA.
At the surface, GFS brings NW'lies for all with the Azores High to the
immediate SW. ECM has WNW'lies, as is the case with MetO. GEM and JMA are
similar as well.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows winds backing westerly on day 6 and SW'ly on day 7 as a ridge
declines over the UK.
GFS brings westerlies on days 6 and 7 with a high to the south.

Looking further afield
ECM shows SW'lies on days 8 to 10 as low pressure moves slowly eastwards to
the north of the UK.
GFS has SE'lies on day 8 as a trough disrupts to the west. On day 9 there
are westerlies, followed by light winds as pressure builds over the UK on
day 10.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The GEFS shows temperatures a little below average.

ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
The ECM ensembles now show a cold 3 days followed by a gradual warming.



 




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