After the changing output of the last 36 hours, we're in a period of
real uncertainty towards mid-month. The MetO says this:

"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards. Temperatures cold at first but near normal later."
It then continues this forecast in a similar unsettled vein past the
end of March on the 15-30 day forecast.

The 12z ECM shows high pressure dominating, whereas the 12z gfs shows
something more unsettled.



Neither the 00z gfs, nor the 00z ECM were outliers in terms of
temperatures compared to the ECM mean and neither was the 12z gfs
operational, compared to the gfs ensemble mean:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

A slow warming trend is likely, but would anybody like to take a
position on the synoptic situation at 10 days?

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
After the changing output of the last 36 hours, we're in a period of
real uncertainty towards mid-month. The MetO says this:

"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards. Temperatures cold at first but near normal later."
It then continues this forecast in a similar unsettled vein past the
end of March on the 15-30 day forecast.

The 12z ECM shows high pressure dominating, whereas the 12z gfs shows
something more unsettled.



Neither the 00z gfs, nor the 00z ECM were outliers in terms of
temperatures compared to the ECM mean and neither was the 12z gfs
operational, compared to the gfs ensemble mean:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

A slow warming trend is likely, but would anybody like to take a
position on the synoptic situation at 10 days?



So in March you will go for the slow warming trend.

Brilliant absolutey brilliant.

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

A slow warming trend is likely, but would anybody like to take a
position on the synoptic situation at 10 days?



So in March you will go for the slow warming trend.

Brilliant absolutey brilliant.

And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Mar 5, 7:24*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...





After the changing output of the last 36 hours, we're in a period of
real uncertainty towards mid-month. The MetO says this:

"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards. Temperatures cold at first but near normal later."
It then continues this forecast in a similar unsettled vein past the
end of March on the 15-30 day forecast.

The 12z ECM shows high pressure dominating, whereas the 12z gfs shows
something more unsettled.

Neither the 00z gfs, nor the 00z ECM were outliers in terms of
temperatures compared to the ECM mean and neither was the 12z gfs
operational, compared to the gfs ensemble mean:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

A slow warming trend is likely, but would anybody like to take a
position on the synoptic situation at 10 days?

So in March you will go for the slow warming trend.

Brilliant absolutey brilliant.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

You understand nothing about the possible uses of weather model
information at 10 days Lawrence either. Try forecasting at that
distance a few times before saying anything to someone that is
prepared to put their neck on the line time and again to do exactly
that. Also - try to avoid abuse in your replies from now on, no matter
how difficuilt it is when you have little to actually say. So far
tonight you've called SRH a GW nutter and me a tw+t. More abuse coming?

On 05/03/10 19:21, Dawlish wrote:
"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards.

A wonderful piece of gibberish! What I gather from that is that there
will be no change from the 15th to the 19th with wind and rain limited
to the west throughout.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On Mar 5, 8:02*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 05/03/10 19:21, Dawlish wrote:

"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards.

A wonderful piece of gibberish! What I gather from that is that there
will be no change from the 15th to the 19th with wind and rain limited
to the west throughout.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

True! I'd just like to point out that I didn't actually write that!
*))

In article ,
Graham P Davis writes:
On 05/03/10 19:21, Dawlish wrote:
"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards.

A wonderful piece of gibberish! What I gather from that is that there
will be no change from the 15th to the 19th with wind and rain limited
to the west throughout.


Presumably either "western" should have read "northern" or "southwards"
should have read "eastwards". Maybe it originally said "wind and rain in
many western and northern parts spreading slowly eastwards and
southwards", but some editor decided that it was too long and made a
ham-fisted attempt at shortening it.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

A slow warming trend is likely, but would anybody like to take a
position on the synoptic situation at 10 days?



So in March you will go for the slow warming trend.

Brilliant absolutey brilliant.

And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl


No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out and
to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his colours to
the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his long range
prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the winter months.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Mar 5, 7:24 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...





After the changing output of the last 36 hours, we're in a period of
real uncertainty towards mid-month. The MetO says this:

"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards. Temperatures cold at first but near normal later."
It then continues this forecast in a similar unsettled vein past the
end of March on the 15-30 day forecast.

The 12z ECM shows high pressure dominating, whereas the 12z gfs shows
something more unsettled.

Neither the 00z gfs, nor the 00z ECM were outliers in terms of
temperatures compared to the ECM mean and neither was the 12z gfs
operational, compared to the gfs ensemble mean:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

A slow warming trend is likely, but would anybody like to take a
position on the synoptic situation at 10 days?

So in March you will go for the slow warming trend.

Brilliant absolutey brilliant.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

You understand nothing about the possible uses of weather model
information at 10 days Lawrence either. Try forecasting at that
distance a few times before saying anything to someone that is
prepared to put their neck on the line time and again to do exactly
that. Also - try to avoid abuse in your replies from now on, no matter
how difficuilt it is when you have little to actually say. So far
tonight you've called SRH a GW nutter and me a tw+t. More abuse coming?


Yes spot on mate but I don't pretend to.

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Col" wrote in message


And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl


No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out
and to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his
colours to the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his
long range prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the
winter months.

Well, yes indeed.
And he is quite open and honest about it with the 75% confidence
level to forecast at 10 days.
Presumably he considers anything lower than that wold merely be
'guesswork' and he'd get as many forescasts right as wrong, so
what would be the point?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl