On 05/03/10 20:11, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Graham P Davis writes:
On 05/03/10 19:21, Dawlish wrote:
"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards.

A wonderful piece of gibberish! What I gather from that is that there
will be no change from the 15th to the 19th with wind and rain limited
to the west throughout.


Presumably either "western" should have read "northern" or "southwards"
should have read "eastwards". Maybe it originally said "wind and rain in
many western and northern parts spreading slowly eastwards and
southwards", but some editor decided that it was too long and made a
ham-fisted attempt at shortening it.

Another way of interpreting it is that if "western" meant the western
half of the country, a southward movement would cause the wind and rain
to retreat westwards - the line between east and west having a SE-NW
slope to it - and the country might be dry by the 19th.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Col" wrote in message


And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl


No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out
and to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his
colours to the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his
long range prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the
winter months.

Well, yes indeed.
And he is quite open and honest about it with the 75% confidence
level to forecast at 10 days.
Presumably he considers anything lower than that wold merely be
'guesswork' and he'd get as many forescasts right as wrong, so
what would be the point?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl


The point is Col he tries to masquerade as some sort of amateur
meteorologist. He talks reams of cut and paste bull**** hoping it will
baffle brains. Yet all he does is hunt around the latest overall feel of
the model output which we can all do but would frankly feel too embarrassed
to attempt. Of course a seasoned meteorologist will stick to their guns
despite the model flip flopping.

On Mar 6, 12:02*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Col" wrote in message

...







"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
.. .

"Col" wrote in message

And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out
and to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his
colours to the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his
long range prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the
winter months.

Well, yes indeed.
And he is quite open and honest about it with the 75% confidence
level to forecast at 10 days.
Presumably he considers anything lower than that wold merely be
'guesswork' and he'd get as many forescasts right as wrong, so
what would be the point?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

The point is Col he tries to masquerade as some sort of amateur
meteorologist. He talks reams of cut and paste bull**** hoping it will
baffle brains. Yet all he does is hunt *around the latest overall feel of
the model output which we can all do but would frankly feel too embarrassed
to attempt. Of course a seasoned meteorologist will stick to their guns
despite the model flip flopping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Maybe you're not going to have that good a day again..............*))

If you ever think what I do is easy - try it 10 times and see how you
do.
If you think there is anyone.or any agency that can forecast with
accuracy at 10 days on a daily, or other basis - show us who they are.

That's why I've been doing this for over 4 years and over 80 forecasts
at 10 days - just to see what the possibilities are when I feel that a
reasonably accurate 10-day forecast is possible. Most of the time,
IMO, it isn't and that has frustrated me for ages and caused me to try
something different myself. It's an experiment that's still ongoing,
but the results to today, 63 correct forecasts out of 81 (77.7%
accuracy) suggests there is more to this than what you think. I have a
forecast at outcome today. See what you think of it when I getl get
round to analysing it later.

On Mar 5, 7:24*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...





After the changing output of the last 36 hours, we're in a period of
real uncertainty towards mid-month. The MetO says this:

"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards. Temperatures cold at first but near normal later."
It then continues this forecast in a similar unsettled vein past the
end of March on the 15-30 day forecast.

The 12z ECM shows high pressure dominating, whereas the 12z gfs shows
something more unsettled.

Neither the 00z gfs, nor the 00z ECM were outliers in terms of
temperatures compared to the ECM mean and neither was the 12z gfs
operational, compared to the gfs ensemble mean:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

A slow warming trend is likely, but would anybody like to take a
position on the synoptic situation at 10 days?

So in March you will go for the slow warming trend.

Brilliant absolutey brilliant.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The ECM ens are quite different to yesterday in terms of drier and
less windy at 10 days, but the mildening is still the

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

Less of a warmer trend in the gfs ens, but, as I'd thought, that cold,
northerly, 06z run was a huge cold outlier at 10 days!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

No agreement and little consistency from either of these models makes
a forecast with even reasonable accuracy impossible at present. MetO
reflect this as they've changed their forecast at 8 days + completely
from yesterday's "much more unsettled" unsettled outlook at 9+ days to
this:

"From Sunday (14th) through the following week high pressure will
still dominate across much of the UK away from the northwest. So a lot
of dry weather with overnight fog and frost continuing."

This puts back the change to an Atlantic regime a little further.Hard
to imagine a bigger turnaround in 24 hours at 10 days. I don't blame
them for altering their forecast so radically, but it backs what I'm
been saying about the present difficulty. Forecasting at 10 days at
the moment with confidence is impossible, IMO. You could guess and get
it right, or you could guess and get it wrong. No better.

Like I also said, I see nothing else in the methodology behind the
ensuing at 16-30 day forecast more than extrapolating what the gfs ens
and the ECM ens means are showing to 16 days. I can't see the point of
offering this new monthly forecast and I'd love to see how the public
questionnaire, the results of which the MetO say they are responding
to, was worded to give them the impression that the general public
want a monthly forecast instead of a seasonal one. Having seen the
results of many questionnaires designed by students, I know that it is
very easy to get your respondents to give you the answer that you wish
them to.

On Mar 6, 12:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 6, 12:02*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:





"Col" wrote in message

...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
.. .

"Col" wrote in message

And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out
and to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his
colours to the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his
long range prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the
winter months.

Well, yes indeed.
And he is quite open and honest about it with the 75% confidence
level to forecast at 10 days.
Presumably he considers anything lower than that wold merely be
'guesswork' and he'd get as many forescasts right as wrong, so
what would be the point?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

The point is Col he tries to masquerade as some sort of amateur
meteorologist. He talks reams of cut and paste bull**** hoping it will
baffle brains. Yet all he does is hunt *around the latest overall feel of
the model output which we can all do but would frankly feel too embarrassed
to attempt. Of course a seasoned meteorologist will stick to their guns
despite the model flip flopping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Maybe you're not going to have that good a day again..............*))

If you ever think what I do is easy - try it 10 times and see how you
do.
If you think there is anyone.or any agency that can forecast with
accuracy at 10 days on a daily, or other basis - show us who they are.

That's why I've been doing this for over 4 years and over 80 forecasts
at 10 days - just to see what the possibilities are when I feel that a
reasonably accurate 10-day forecast is possible. Most of the time,
IMO, it isn't and that has frustrated me for ages and caused me to try
something different myself. It's an experiment that's still ongoing,
but the results to today, 63 correct forecasts out of 81 (77.7%
accuracy) suggests there is more to this than what you think. I have a
forecast at outcome today. See what you think of it when I getl get
round to analysing it later.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I seem to have missed your comments Lawrence. *))

Anyway, back to the models. ECM 12z looking at high pressure at T240,
whereas gfs 18z shows an Atlantic flow which starts as the high
pressure sinks as early as late next weekend. No agreement; no
consistency.Anyone like to try their hand at forecasting at 10 days
with the current output?

On Mar 6, 12:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 6, 12:02*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:





"Col" wrote in message

...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
.. .

"Col" wrote in message

And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out
and to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his
colours to the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his
long range prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the
winter months.

Well, yes indeed.
And he is quite open and honest about it with the 75% confidence
level to forecast at 10 days.
Presumably he considers anything lower than that wold merely be
'guesswork' and he'd get as many forescasts right as wrong, so
what would be the point?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

The point is Col he tries to masquerade as some sort of amateur
meteorologist. He talks reams of cut and paste bull**** hoping it will
baffle brains. Yet all he does is hunt *around the latest overall feel of
the model output which we can all do but would frankly feel too embarrassed
to attempt. Of course a seasoned meteorologist will stick to their guns
despite the model flip flopping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Maybe you're not going to have that good a day again..............*))

If you ever think what I do is easy - try it 10 times and see how you
do.
If you think there is anyone.or any agency that can forecast with
accuracy at 10 days on a daily, or other basis - show us who they are.

That's why I've been doing this for over 4 years and over 80 forecasts
at 10 days - just to see what the possibilities are when I feel that a
reasonably accurate 10-day forecast is possible. Most of the time,
IMO, it isn't and that has frustrated me for ages and caused me to try
something different myself. It's an experiment that's still ongoing,
but the results to today, 63 correct forecasts out of 81 (77.7%
accuracy) suggests there is more to this than what you think. I have a
forecast at outcome today. See what you think of it when I getl get
round to analysing it later.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There are more than 80 days in 4 years. There are more than 80
10-day periods in 4 years. 146 of them in fact. So you're being very
picky indeed about which periods you forecast so it is quite pointless
to measure your success rate. In any case if the models
(particularly GFS) get it wrong then you get it wrong. You only make
a forecast if the models are in agreement. It's no more than
comparing the odds from a load of bookies and when they're all giving
short odds on a particular gee-gee you say that one is going to win.
Well, anyone can do that. Why don't you pack it up - you don't fool
anybody, whatever it does for your self-esteem, not that that would
appear to need boosting. Or maybe it does.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Mar 7, 4:25*am, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Mar 6, 12:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Mar 6, 12:02*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"Col" wrote in message

...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
.. .

"Col" wrote in message

And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out
and to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his
colours to the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his
long range prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the
winter months.

Well, yes indeed.
And he is quite open and honest about it with the 75% confidence
level to forecast at 10 days.
Presumably he considers anything lower than that wold merely be
'guesswork' and he'd get as many forescasts right as wrong, so
what would be the point?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

The point is Col he tries to masquerade as some sort of amateur
meteorologist. He talks reams of cut and paste bull**** hoping it will
baffle brains. Yet all he does is hunt *around the latest overall feel of
the model output which we can all do but would frankly feel too embarrassed
to attempt. Of course a seasoned meteorologist will stick to their guns
despite the model flip flopping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Maybe you're not going to have that good a day again..............*))

If you ever think what I do is easy - try it 10 times and see how you
do.
If you think there is anyone.or any agency that can forecast with
accuracy at 10 days on a daily, or other basis - show us who they are.

That's why I've been doing this for over 4 years and over 80 forecasts
at 10 days - just to see what the possibilities are when I feel that a
reasonably accurate 10-day forecast is possible. Most of the time,
IMO, it isn't and that has frustrated me for ages and caused me to try
something different myself. It's an experiment that's still ongoing,
but the results to today, 63 correct forecasts out of 81 (77.7%
accuracy) suggests there is more to this than what you think. I have a
forecast at outcome today. See what you think of it when I getl get
round to analysing it later.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

* * *There are more than 80 days in 4 years. *There are more than 80
10-day periods in 4 years. 146 of them in fact. *So you're being very
picky indeed about which periods you forecast so it is quite pointless
to measure your success rate. * In any case if the models
(particularly GFS) get it wrong then you get it wrong. *You only make
a forecast *if the models are in agreement. *It's no more than
comparing the odds from a load of bookies and when they're all giving
short odds on a particular gee-gee you say that one is going to win.
Well, anyone can do that. *Why don't you pack it up - you don't fool
anybody, whatever it does for your self-esteem, not that that would
appear to need boosting. *Or maybe it does.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'll pack it up when I can't lift the results above 70% and certainly
not as a result of your advice. Your track record on advice doesn't
become you.

If you are so sure of yourself - that this is so easy.........try it
and see if you can spot when something is actually *likely* to achieve
outcome at 10 days. Just do it and see how you do for 10 forecasts.
There's always a few like you who criticise without ever having the
guts to actually try anything like this yourself. Where else on the
Internet - or from individuals and agencies does anyone make forecasts
at 10 days so public and expose themself to analysis (and people like
you) after every single forecast? Could you have actually forecast
high pressure in charge yesterday from 10 days ago with any reasonable
confidence that you could get it right? Could you then do that
another, say, 7 times out of the next 9? You'd have to watch
4,000/5,000 gfs and ECM model runs over that period of time to build
up your skills mind - but that's easy isn't it?

Very well done figuring that there are more than 40 days in 4 years.
As I've said many times and is presently borne out by the MetO 6-15
days forecast changes over the last 48 hours , an accurate, daily, 10
day forecast is beyond present capabilities so don't ask me to do the
impossible; I can't. If it isn't impossible, show me someone, or an
agency, that can do it and I'll happily bow to that. Also - show me
anyone that comes out in front over a period of time with bookies,
always backing short odds and I'll show you a very lucky man. (of
course "anyone could do that" couldn't they? What a daft thing to
say).

How would you interpret when the 10 day output is likely to be correct
and, more importantly, when it is likely to be wrong? You won't like
this, but you are talking about an area of forecasting that you simply
don't understand. You don't comment on model output and you don't
watch model changes with enough assiduousness to be able tell
*anything* that is likely to happen at 10 days. If you try
forecasting at 10 days, you'll soon understand it. Promise you. That's
all you, Lawrence or any stalker has to do. Easy.

Go on; try it.

On Mar 6, 9:20*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 6, 12:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Mar 6, 12:02*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"Col" wrote in message

...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
.. .

"Col" wrote in message

And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out
and to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his
colours to the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his
long range prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the
winter months.

Well, yes indeed.
And he is quite open and honest about it with the 75% confidence
level to forecast at 10 days.
Presumably he considers anything lower than that wold merely be
'guesswork' and he'd get as many forescasts right as wrong, so
what would be the point?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

The point is Col he tries to masquerade as some sort of amateur
meteorologist. He talks reams of cut and paste bull**** hoping it will
baffle brains. Yet all he does is hunt *around the latest overall feel of
the model output which we can all do but would frankly feel too embarrassed
to attempt. Of course a seasoned meteorologist will stick to their guns
despite the model flip flopping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Maybe you're not going to have that good a day again..............*))

If you ever think what I do is easy - try it 10 times and see how you
do.
If you think there is anyone.or any agency that can forecast with
accuracy at 10 days on a daily, or other basis - show us who they are.

That's why I've been doing this for over 4 years and over 80 forecasts
at 10 days - just to see what the possibilities are when I feel that a
reasonably accurate 10-day forecast is possible. Most of the time,
IMO, it isn't and that has frustrated me for ages and caused me to try
something different myself. It's an experiment that's still ongoing,
but the results to today, 63 correct forecasts out of 81 (77.7%
accuracy) suggests there is more to this than what you think. I have a
forecast at outcome today. See what you think of it when I getl get
round to analysing it later.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I seem to have missed your comments Lawrence. *))

Anyway, back to the models. ECM 12z looking at high pressure at T240,
whereas gfs 18z shows an Atlantic flow which starts as the high
pressure sinks as early as late next weekend. No agreement; no
consistency.Anyone like to try their hand at forecasting at 10 days
with the current output?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

And back to the thread title...........

Lots of agreement between the 00z gfs and the 00z ECM, this morning
for a sinking high and the Atlantic pushing over the top of it. The
gfs also has the jet at 10 days withn a longwave over the UK. It's a
long time since we've seen that on a chart. It's only a T240 chart of
course and the next couple of gfs runs and the 12z ECM could change
that, but if they show something similar, it may be that there will be
enough confidence to forecast a pattern change. I'll bet today's MetO
6-15 day lunchtime forecast precis writer changes the 6-15 days
forecast back to "unsettled" from about the 15th! *))

On Mar 7, 8:53*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 6, 9:20*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Mar 6, 12:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Mar 6, 12:02*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"Col" wrote in message

...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
.. .

"Col" wrote in message

And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out
and to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his
colours to the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his
long range prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the
winter months.

Well, yes indeed.
And he is quite open and honest about it with the 75% confidence
level to forecast at 10 days.
Presumably he considers anything lower than that wold merely be
'guesswork' and he'd get as many forescasts right as wrong, so
what would be the point?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

The point is Col he tries to masquerade as some sort of amateur
meteorologist. He talks reams of cut and paste bull**** hoping it will
baffle brains. Yet all he does is hunt *around the latest overall feel of
the model output which we can all do but would frankly feel too embarrassed
to attempt. Of course a seasoned meteorologist will stick to their guns
despite the model flip flopping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Maybe you're not going to have that good a day again..............*))

If you ever think what I do is easy - try it 10 times and see how you
do.
If you think there is anyone.or any agency that can forecast with
accuracy at 10 days on a daily, or other basis - show us who they are..

That's why I've been doing this for over 4 years and over 80 forecasts
at 10 days - just to see what the possibilities are when I feel that a
reasonably accurate 10-day forecast is possible. Most of the time,
IMO, it isn't and that has frustrated me for ages and caused me to try
something different myself. It's an experiment that's still ongoing,
but the results to today, 63 correct forecasts out of 81 (77.7%
accuracy) suggests there is more to this than what you think. I have a
forecast at outcome today. See what you think of it when I getl get
round to analysing it later.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I seem to have missed your comments Lawrence. *))

Anyway, back to the models. ECM 12z looking at high pressure at T240,
whereas gfs 18z shows an Atlantic flow which starts as the high
pressure sinks as early as late next weekend. No agreement; no
consistency.Anyone like to try their hand at forecasting at 10 days
with the current output?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

And back to the thread title...........

Lots of agreement between the 00z gfs and the 00z ECM, this morning
for a sinking high and the Atlantic pushing over the top of it. The
gfs also has the jet at 10 days withn a longwave over the UK. It's a
long time since we've seen that on a chart. It's only a T240 chart of
course and the next couple of gfs runs and the 12z ECM could change
that, but if they show something similar, it may be that there will be
enough confidence to forecast a pattern change. I'll bet today's MetO
6-15 day lunchtime forecast precis writer changes the 6-15 days
forecast back to "unsettled" from about the 15th! *))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

06z gfs continues in the same theme and the ECM ens show a much more
unsettled spell from mid month:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

On Mar 7, 8:45*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 7, 4:25*am, Tudor Hughes wrote:





On Mar 6, 12:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Mar 6, 12:02*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"Col" wrote in message

...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
.. .

"Col" wrote in message

And?
He can only report what he thinks is likely to happen,
and if what he thinks is likely to happen is similar to
long term trends, then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

No Col I was being charitable the way he (dawlish ) sticks his neck out
and to hell with it, even if the odds are in his favour, he nails his
colours to the mast. Been a trait of his all winter. I paticular like his
long range prediction that there could be some rain in the UK during the
winter months.

Well, yes indeed.
And he is quite open and honest about it with the 75% confidence
level to forecast at 10 days.
Presumably he considers anything lower than that wold merely be
'guesswork' and he'd get as many forescasts right as wrong, so
what would be the point?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

The point is Col he tries to masquerade as some sort of amateur
meteorologist. He talks reams of cut and paste bull**** hoping it will
baffle brains. Yet all he does is hunt *around the latest overall feel of
the model output which we can all do but would frankly feel too embarrassed
to attempt. Of course a seasoned meteorologist will stick to their guns
despite the model flip flopping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Maybe you're not going to have that good a day again..............*))

If you ever think what I do is easy - try it 10 times and see how you
do.
If you think there is anyone.or any agency that can forecast with
accuracy at 10 days on a daily, or other basis - show us who they are..

That's why I've been doing this for over 4 years and over 80 forecasts
at 10 days - just to see what the possibilities are when I feel that a
reasonably accurate 10-day forecast is possible. Most of the time,
IMO, it isn't and that has frustrated me for ages and caused me to try
something different myself. It's an experiment that's still ongoing,
but the results to today, 63 correct forecasts out of 81 (77.7%
accuracy) suggests there is more to this than what you think. I have a
forecast at outcome today. See what you think of it when I getl get
round to analysing it later.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

* * *There are more than 80 days in 4 years. *There are more than 80
10-day periods in 4 years. 146 of them in fact. *So you're being very
picky indeed about which periods you forecast so it is quite pointless
to measure your success rate. * In any case if the models
(particularly GFS) get it wrong then you get it wrong. *You only make
a forecast *if the models are in agreement. *It's no more than
comparing the odds from a load of bookies and when they're all giving
short odds on a particular gee-gee you say that one is going to win.
Well, anyone can do that. *Why don't you pack it up - you don't fool
anybody, whatever it does for your self-esteem, not that that would
appear to need boosting. *Or maybe it does.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'll pack it up when I can't lift the results above 70% and certainly
not as a result of your advice. Your track record on advice doesn't
become you.

If you are so sure of yourself - that this is so easy.........try it
and see if you can spot when something is actually *likely* to achieve
outcome at 10 days. Just do it and see how you do for 10 forecasts.
There's always a few like you who criticise without ever having the
guts to actually try anything like this yourself. Where else on the
Internet - or from individuals and agencies does anyone make forecasts
at 10 days so public and expose themself to analysis (and people like
you) after every single forecast? Could you have actually forecast
high pressure in charge yesterday from 10 days ago with any reasonable
confidence that you could get it right? Could you then do that
another, say, 7 times out of the next 9? You'd have to watch
4,000/5,000 gfs and ECM model runs over that period of time to build
up your skills mind - but that's easy isn't it?

Very well done figuring that there are more than 40 days in 4 years.
As I've said many times and is presently borne out by the MetO 6-15
days forecast changes over the last 48 hours , an accurate, daily, 10
day forecast is beyond present capabilities so don't ask me to do the
impossible; I can't. If it isn't impossible, show me someone, or an
agency, that can do it and I'll happily bow to that. Also - show me
anyone that comes out in front over a period of time with bookies,
always backing short odds and I'll show you a very lucky man. (of
course "anyone could do that" couldn't they? What a daft thing to
say).

How would you interpret when the 10 day output is likely to be correct
and, more importantly, when it is likely to be wrong? You won't like
this, but you are talking about an area of forecasting that you simply
don't understand. You don't comment on model output and you don't
watch model changes with enough assiduousness to be able tell
*anything* that is likely to happen at 10 days. *If you try
forecasting at 10 days, you'll soon understand it. Promise you. That's
all you, Lawrence or any stalker has to do. Easy.

Go on; try it.- Hide quoted text -

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Is it worth arguing? No it isn't. You pompous arrogant
patronising ****. No more from me on this group, another one for you
to add to your score though to be honest there are a number of other
reasons as well.

T C Hughes