![]() |
| If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. |
|
|||||||
| alt.talk.weather (General Weather Talk) (alt.talk.weather) A general forum for discussion of the weather. |
| Tags: 0904 |
|
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
|
Here is a list of the tabs I have open in Opera. It is by no means all
of them but they are the ones I have to check out to get some idea what I should have been saying rather than what I actually have said: http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html Useful mix of satellite and synoptics. http://wmc.meteoinfo.ru/losev-forc Russian chart giving 48 hours a 12 hour update on Moscow time is rather sporadic. http://www.cuckney.pwp.blueyonder.co...r/Dorridge.htm A collection of charts and info that gives a british source for British synoptic charts. I find it updates more often than Wetterzentrale. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/...is/947_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...me=00&Type=pnm Two excellent Canadian charts. Pity they are just one a day though you can get a later version of them if you look. I wonder what it would cost to update it automatically? https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html This is an undoctored modelk run. You can get a much longer loop you need to get into the site through a different page at first but once oyu have their cookies you can carry on as normal. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/ The graphic on here shows that earthquakes are clusters that occur geometrically rather than due to loading. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/081006_rpts.html This will give the tornadic activity. It has been so quiet on there over the last few weeks I stopped looking. When I see Chuina is active seismically I look and see some action. (The last couple of days for example.) http://www.stormbanner.com/ http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm Thes two are excellent for following tropical storms. http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/us...ontent=archive This is something that gives a good overview once a week. Volcanoes re very much the poor relation of earth science. http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html Lunar phases. I have to put " " in front of them to prevent Google munging html links. If I don't the links tend to buch up and appear as one paragraph. The Atlantic chart shows that the lows are going over Iceland for this spell. A return to the Davis Strait route? A look at the MetO charts for the September 15th to 22nd spell shows this is definitely a mark of the beast. Let's take a look at how the spells repeat: 15th September @ 09:13 22nd September @ 05:04 29th September @ 08:12 7th October @ 09:04 14thOctober @ 20:03 the 05:04 phase was exactly the same as the 09:13 spell. So we can lump all three together: 15th September @ 09:13 22nd September @ 05:04 7th October @ 09:04 And the next pair are similar in their relationship. Some difference in the tectonic and meteorological storms but the intensities are similar. Just placing them is a PITA. 14thOctober @ 20:0329th September @ 08:12 |
| Ads |
|
#2
|
|||
|
|||
|
On Oct 7, 2:19*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Here is a list of the tabs I have open in Opera. It is by no means all of them but they are the ones I have to check out to get some idea what I should have been saying rather than what I actually have said: http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html Useful mix of satellite and synoptics. http://wmc.meteoinfo.ru/losev-forc Russian chart giving 48 hours a 12 hour update on Moscow time is rather sporadic. http://www.cuckney.pwp.blueyonder.co...r/Dorridge.htm A collection of charts and info that gives a british source for British synoptic charts. I find it updates more often than Wetterzentrale. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/...is/947_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...our=0&Day=0&Ru... Two excellent Canadian charts. Pity they are just one a day though you can get a later version of them if you look. I wonder what it would cost to update it automatically? https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html This is an undoctored modelk run. You can get a much longer loop you need to get into the site through a different page at first but once oyu have their cookies you can carry on as normal. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/ The graphic on here shows that earthquakes are clusters that occur geometrically rather than due to loading. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/081006_rpts.html This will give the tornadic activity. It has been so quiet on there over the last few weeks I stopped looking. When I see Chuina is active seismically I look and see some action. (The last couple of days for example.) http://www.stormbanner.com/ http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm Thes two are excellent for following tropical storms. http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/us...ontent=archive This is something that gives a good overview once a week. Volcanoes re very much the poor relation of earth science. http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html Lunar phases. I have to put " " in front of them to prevent Google munging html links. If I don't the links tend to buch up and appear as one paragraph. The Atlantic chart shows that the lows are going over Iceland for this spell. A return to the Davis Strait route? A look at the MetO charts for the September 15th to 22nd spell shows this is definitely a mark of the beast. Let's take a look at how the spells repeat: 15th September @ 09:13 22nd September @ 05:04 29th September @ 08:12 7th October @ 09:04 14thOctober @ 20:03 the 05:04 phase was exactly the same as the 09:13 spell. So we can lump all three together: 15th September @ 09:13 22nd September @ 05:04 7th October @ 09:04 And the next pair are similar in their relationship. Some difference in the tectonic and meteorological storms but the intensities are similar. Just placing them is a PITA. 14thOctober @ 20:0329th September @ 08:12 From the spell a couple of weeks back that occurred with a time of phase of 09:13: The USA had fine weather spreading east from the Rockies there was hail, high winds or tornadoes reportedin the first few days of the spell. The USA has high pressure virtually all over the place inland and lows along both coasts. When you look at the way those Lows off the North American west coast avoid crossing the Rockies you can glimpse the reason that hurricanes take the paths they do. They just love to hug shorelines and avoid mountains or Mid Atlantic Ridges. I rather think the reason is that the sound they are tied to is channelled in those ground levels. I don't remember seeing such a clear run over the USA. Things seem to have settled down with the seismicity off the west coast. It is worth bearing in mind that the relationship I first noticed between the weather on the US east coast and earthquakes in the Aleutians was with highs leaving at regular intervals. This was one of those spells. The occlusion running N/S from the Arctic through Britain was something I had never noticed before. It seemed remarkably long lived. We were overdue some severe stuff from somewhere in the system. This turned out to be a severe quake in the Kermadec Island region along with some severe ones elsewhere. Odd little skipping stones he 2008/09/18 3.4 17:32 35.2 -119.4 Central California +20 degrees longitude = 3.1 14:56 60.6; -137.2 Southern Yukon Territory, +20 degrees longitude = 5.8 11:59 52.3; 156.8 Kamchatka Peninsula, 5.9 11:59 52.0; 158.2 E Coast of Kamchatka, +20 degrees longitude = 3.5 09:05 51.6; -179.0 Andreanof Islands, 2.8 07:14 52.4; -178.4 Andreanof Islands, Pity this one got in the way: 5.2 09:30 46.2; 143.5 Sakhalin, Russia Ike and its sister produced quite a spate of quakes in the Aleutians one of them a 4.6 M. These smaller quakes can predict the weather. If you were watching a plot from a region that was having these microbursts or whatever they are called, regularly, you'd get a taste of the sort of weather to expect with them. Then you would need to identify the sequences such as this: Coquimbo, Chile Island Of Hawaii, Hawaii Tajikistan Offshore Guatemala Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan Unimak Island Region, Alaska Santa Cruz Islands Region Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska Unimak Island Region, Alaska Southern California Ascension Island Region Volcano Islands, Japan Region Central Alaska Ryukyu Islands, Japan South Of The Fiji Islands Puerto Rico Region South Of Tonga Baja California, Mexico Northern Sumatra, Indonesia Samoa Islands Central California Greater Los Angeles Area, California Fiji Region Utah Fox Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska Andaman Islands, India Region Southern Alaska Northern Alaska New Ireland Region, Papua New Guinea Central California Virgin Islands Region Southern Yukon Territory, Canada Near The East Coast Of Kamchatka, Russia Sakhalin, Russia Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is., Alaska Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is., Alaska South Of The Aleutian Islands South Of The Aleutian Islands Alaska Peninsula Alaska Peninsula Nevada Southern Iran Central East Pacific Rise Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is., Alaska Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is., Alaska Lake Erie, Ohio Puerto Rico Region Which wouldn't be easy but it is do-able. 5.2 M. 2008/09/20 05:16 63.6 N. 129.2 W. NW Territories, Canada. No proof offered and no reason given but this quake is due to the High leaving the USA/Canada over the NE coast near Newfoundland. Ditto for this one: 5.4 M. 20th @ 14:43. 16.1 S. 73.8 W. South coast of Peru. And most likely, this one too: 4.9 M. 20th @ 16:30. 15.4 N. 91.7 W. Guatemala. |
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
|
On Oct 8, 11:51*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
The Atlantic chart shows that the lows are going over Iceland for this spell. A return to the Davis Strait route? Look at how the spells repeat: 15th September @ 09:13 22nd September @ 05:04 29th September @ 08:12 7th October @ 09:04 14thOctober @ 20:03 Rearranged: : 15th September @ 09:13 22nd September @ 05:04 7th October @ 09:04 14thOctober @ 20:03 29th September @ 08:12 From the spell a couple of weeks back that occurred with a time of phase of 09:13: Over the North Atlantic, there were two High Pressure Systems being kept apart as if by magic. Ike was an elongation off Newfoundland rocketing towards Greenland/Iceland. Over Greenland the high pressure was some 1004/1009 mb; not greatly dissimilar to Ike which was 989 mb at its core. The Azores High and the Scandinavian High were elongating toward each other, manfully separated by a low of 1021. Ike intensified forming a marked dartboard going from 962mb to 1020 mb in 30 degrees at 66 degrees N. with the centre about 30 degrees West. It went through the Denmark Strait between Iceland and Greenland. A pattern for all North Atlantic lows subsequently. Two high pressure systems approached each other from Western Ireland the other from Eastern Scotland and NE England and brought fine weather to Britain. The weather had been calm and overcast up until then. It became warm and sunny with no hint of the clamminess that the spell aught to have been sending. I would have said that a lunar phase at 9 o'clock was a thundery spell. I no longer see this is the case. Ike has been stopped by that geological phenomenon: the Mid Atlantic Ridge; that hold Lows as a "singularity" for a day or three and something stopped it being joined by another low out of Northern Canada then there were a line of lows all waiting patiently for whatever it was that sent them up the Denmark Strait. They were all about the same pressures and held off Scandinavia by the High there; the isobars around the low system were quite dramatic. Ike is now up at 70 N almost 90 W; up above Novaya Zemlya, Russia. Meanwhile in the North Atlantic overall, both the Highs and the Lows are high. |
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
|
On Oct 8, 12:08*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
From the 09:13 spell of September 15th to the 22nd: Tropical Storms in the Bay of Bengal are not exactly unheard of in spells like this, however TD O2B is going nowhere and the remains of Sinlaku was hanging on by its fingernails. Meanwhile over in the Asian Pacific, Sinlaku intensified and was joined by 18W There were no powerful quakes, three over Magnitude 4 quakes leading me to believe there was a likely major increase in the power or number tropical storms. Hagupit headed towards Hong Kong.becoming a typhoon that grew into a Cat 3 -which should have changed the weather in the North Atlantic radically. The spell continued through the next week. |
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
|
946 mb just south of the mouth of the Davis Strait. One for the record
books. Good job it's Siberia bound. When that one gets up to around 70 N. 90 W; up above Novaya Zemlya there will be a remarkable earthquake the http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_xnbs_l.html I suppose a lot depends on how many other lows join it or separate out from it. 11 reports of tornadoes in Florida and Alabama for the 8th. And while there an whole slew of earthquakes apparent, I can't get a glimpse of a pattern yet. (Not counting the Fox Islands ones of course. (Too obvious that.)) |
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
|
On Oct 9, 2:12*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
11 reports of tornadoes in Florida and Alabama for the 8th. And while there an whole slew of earthquakes apparent, I can't get a glimpse of a pattern yet. (Not counting the Fox Islands ones of course. (Too obvious that.)) Looking at the predisposition of earthquakes to second guess what I am going to say, the day before I even consider saying it: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...us2008xxa7.php One might expect there to be more than one link to storms and seismicity. Which ties in nicely to a think I though some days back. I was wondering; with the plethora of highs and lows surrounding the whole of coastal North America, how would you work out which one was causing which quake? And the answer is that the answer doesn't matter. You only need to be aware of one immutable constant. The rest will either follow or not as their individual cases might be. At the moment though, I am still stuck in a chicken or egg situation. Perhaps that makes the question important. I rather think that that quake occurred with the storm there rather than after. Which begs another question, why does California get earthquakes all the time and Britain get storms in like measure? The more questions you answer the more questions you can think up. It's base over apex, like pyramid sales. There is no way to win. |
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
|
946 mb just south of the mouth of the Davis Strait. One for the record books. Good job it's Siberia bound. When that one gets up to around 70 N. 90 W; up above Novaya Zemlya there will be a remarkable earthquake there. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_xnbs_l.html I suppose a lot depends on how many other lows join it or separate out from it. It appears the centre of attention will be towards the North American side of the Arctic. I don't know nearly enough to make any specific guesses but there has been more activity on that side reported than on the Russian side. There again of course, I don't even know of a site that reports low magnitude earthquakes outside of the USA. Bit od a ****oire that. 11 reports of tornadoes in Florida and Alabama for the 8th. And while there were an whole slew of earthquakes, I can't get a glimpse of a pattern yet. Not counting the Fox Islands ones of coures (Too obvious that.) ******* Looking at the predisposition of earthquakes to second guess what I am going to say, the day before I even consider saying it: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...us2008xxa7.php One might expect there to be more than one link to storms and seismicity. Which ties in nicely to a think I though some days back. I was wondering; with the plethora of highs and lows surrounding the whole of coastal North America, how would you work out which one was causing which quake? And the answer is that the answer doesn't matter. You only need to be aware of one immutable constant. The rest will either follow or not as their individual cases might be. At the moment though, I am still stuck in a chicken or egg situation. Perhaps that makes the question important. I rather think that that quake occurred with the storm there rather than after. Which begs another question, why does California get earthquakes all the time and Britain get storms in like measure? The more questions you answer the more questions you can think up. It's base over apex, like pyramid sales. There is no way to win. ******* The lows that went up the Davis Strait last time, went up after gaining about 3 or 4 millibars every 6 hours or so. They were not sprinters. And the difference in the spell so far is that the North Atlantic generally had pressure systems that were very similar except for that low pressure area and the adjaent pair of almost joined, almost parallel high system. There is generally an high system over Russia and northern Europe. The high stretches from Southern Britain and Northern France to the Urals. There are as with the spell above, two centres, one over France arounf Le Havre on the Channel coast and one over Russia near Moscow. Quite similar in many ways. Oddly though it is much more like the following spell. The one for September the 22nd to the 29th. We'll just have to see how this one fills out. ******* 960 mb now and rising. Time for a rethink about how these things behave. It is something to do with the acoustics and the depths of the relatively shallow waters. Without looking at just how deep the deeps are on theese courses. And the relationship with depth to storm pressures. Or maybe the frequencies likely to be obtained before reverberation impacts the waves of whatever it is involved. |
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
|
960 mb now and rising. Time for a rethink about how these things behave. It is something to do with the acoustics and the depths of the relatively shallow waters. Without looking at just how deep the deeps are on these courses. And the relationship with depth to storm pressures. Or maybe the frequencies likely to be obtained before reverberation impacts the waves of whatever it is involved. Looking at the sea floor of the Atlantic; it appears that there are ridges and troughs in the floor that run parallel from the south coast of Iceland in almost perfectly straight lines to the centre of Newfoundland (south of the Strait of Belle Isle) and on past Nova Scotia to Virginia and the Carolinas. Well; not really. The stretch doesn't seem to extend much past the bottom of Greenland. But it is an interesting area: http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl...8968/img/1.jpg Perhaps it may explain certain behavioural traits. If it extended as far as the southern 'States, perhaps the weather we know and love would be entirely changed and there be no chance of the Arctic ever recooling? Meanwhile it seems that pressures in that Low are approaching levels that will allow it to move north. Which of course further highlights the questions about which comes first: Movement or pressure change; Cause and effect. OT for the most part The financial crisis: http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=SIHw7C73s3E .....is going to have an unfortunate impact on international services that have served mankind faithfully for decades. However... It will be a terrible shame if the stuff available he http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/i...008psguide.pdf ....is curtailed in any way. Knowing a little bit of human behaviour, I can only forecast that it will -in the worst imaginable and most easily avoidable way and at the most inopportune time possible. Let's hear it for the Chimpanzee. This all started with the deregulation of a B movie star whose legacy was a film about a chimpanzee and massive deregulation in both the petrol chemical industries (think Donald Rumsfeld and Aspartame) and the economy. How exquisitely whatzit! The mills of god's bio-chemicals grind slow... but they grind fine. |
|
#9
|
|||
|
|||
|
A gathering of Lows now fills the NE North Atlantic. The weather in Britain is exactly as it was at the start of the spell I stated at the outside, it would be so like. A dull overcast that requires one puts a light on at mid day if one wishes to make a major repair to an engine, or whatever, on one's kitchen table. (As one does. Buggrit!) I have just been looking at the chart for the day the British tourists were killed in Spain in a rain-storm: The Low was little less than 1016 mb at its lowest. Hardly any different from an High. Norbert is crossing the Mexican Baja peninsula. Something unknown makes them turn about when they leave the tropics. Or does it? If so, is it the same impetus that forces more northerly storms ashore in the same direction? Or is it no force at all, just that the effort they spend in going west ends when they stop building? In which case, as they stop building they'd decrease in intensity would they not? |
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
|
On Oct 11, 1:55*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
A gathering of Lows now fills the NE North Atlantic. The weather in Britain is exactly as it was at the start of the spell I stated at the outside, it would be so like. A dull overcast that requires one puts a light on at mid day if one wishes to make a major repair to an engine, or whatever, on one's kitchen table. Dull? Overcast?? Are you sure??? You do know what these little sun symbols on these tables mean, W, don't you? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ons/index.html |
|
| Thread Tools | |
| Display Modes | |
|
|